新冠肺炎全球蔓延,俄罗斯成最大受益者

风清扬斈 2年前 (2020-03-12) 网络资料 1247 0

面对这场突如其来的新冠疫情,首当其冲的是中国,直接导致经济停滞,现在疫情蔓延到欧洲,欧洲经济直接冰封,最后蔓延到美国,美国股市、债市、重金属、比特币全部暴跌,多次触发熔断机制。反过来想一想,这场危机的背后,是谁赢家?当然没有真正的赢家,但是谁受益了,不用说,当然是俄罗斯。因为中国改变一贯路线,采取了与美国争锋天下的战略布局,导致中美纠纷不断,结果是两败俱伤,新冠疫情无非就是加速剂。中国作为重要的砝码,曾经倒向美国打击了苏联,现在被迫联合俄罗斯,但是俄罗斯算盘打得啪啪响,趁你病要你命,中美鏖战,俄罗斯渔翁得利。中美欧必将元气大伤!

特朗普白宫讲话:这不是金融危机 提供2000亿美元的流动性

北京时间3月12日上午,美国总统特朗普在白宫椭圆办公室发表全国电视讲话,讲话要点如下:

  1、对欧洲推出旅行禁令,为期30天

  特朗普宣布自本周五凌晨起,对欧洲推出旅行禁令,为期30天。英国将不受该禁令影响。特朗普称,正与同盟国进行密切沟通,这是历史上在应对疫情方面最广泛的努力,有信心能够显著降低疫情对人们的威胁。

  2、年长的美国人应当避免不必要的旅行

  特朗普透露,新冠病毒检测的能力大幅提高。对于绝大多数美国人而言,病毒的风险非常非常低。 他指出,年长的美国人应当避免不必要的旅行。建议所有的疗养院均暂停所有不必要的拜访。

  特朗普强调,“我们以极快的速度与专业度作出响应。应对病毒的努力为史上最全面的一次,相信我们将大大减少疫情对民众的威胁。”

  3、这不是金融危机

  特朗普宣布,将采取紧急行动提供纾困措施,并将会要求国会在纾困上采取立法行动。这些政策包括:指示财政部推迟一些税款缴纳;将额外提供2000亿美元的流动性;要求国会向小企业管理局增加500亿美元的资金;指示小企业管理局向受影响的州提供贷款;呼吁国会立即减免薪资税。

  特朗普还表示,将采取紧急行动,为因感染新冠肺炎而生病、被隔离或照顾他人的工人提供经济援助。

  同时,特朗普强调“这不是金融危机”,银行、金融机构资本充足,实力雄厚。

■文|财主

2008年那种方式的金融危机,我却认为很难再现了。

在信用货币时代,“钱”其实想要多少就会有多少,只有某个人、某个机构存在着“缺钱”的问题,整个市场上从来不会“整体缺钱”。

当代不会发生雷曼倒闭式的“信用冰冻”危机,但并不是说不会发生其他类型的金融危机,比方阿根廷式、委内瑞拉式……

在新冠疫情影响之下,上周五全球股市普遍大跌,原油暴跌,黄金暴涨……

有人对比了2008年美股下跌,与最近两周的美股下跌,特别是发现美股波动率指数升高到2008年时期的水平,不由得惊呼——

2008年的金融危机又要来了!

老实说,我对新冠疫情在全球的传播和蔓延也十分不乐观,也认为美国乃至全球的股市泡沫很可能会遭遇迎头痛击。

但是,2008年那种方式的金融危机,我却认为很难再现了。

『01、当代金融体系是如何运转的?』

当代信用货币体系之下,因为央行掌握着“货币供应”的点纸成金大法,其地位在经济中举足轻重。作为一个公共部门,央行要向整个社会展现自己的公平公正,除非遇到系统性的金融风险,涉及金钱的往来,央行不会与商业银行之外的其他任何金融机构或个人发生联系。

没错,在具体的钱的出入的事儿上,央妈向来只与商业银行单线联系,其他任何个人和机构都没有资格和央妈联系。正因为只针对商业银行开展业务,而且是直接提供资金的方式,所以央行被称为“银行中的银行”、“最后贷款人”。

全国主要的商业银行,都会在央妈这里开设账户,央行则会通过再贷款、回购逆回购、资产购买等方式,在商业银行提供了资产做抵押的情况下,将货币注入到商业银行。只有央妈将货币注入商业银行之后,这些钱才会流通到社会上,形成所有金融机构或个人的现金、存款、工资、利息、贷款、债务……

当央行将“钱”注入到商业银行之后,任何社会上的人和机构(除在央妈那里开设户头的商业银行自身),就可以在银行里开设账户,进行相关的买卖和转账操作,由此形成整个社会上的资金流动,现代经济体系就在这一套货币体系的支撑下,最终形成了整个社会的债务债权关系,生产、消费、贸易等相关经济活动也得以正常运转。

现代经济体系中,中央银行提供了最源头、最基础的货币,但整个社会的信用,却并不仅仅局限于这些基础货币,而是在商业银行对资金的来回存贷操作中,形成了扩大数倍的信用,这个扩大的倍数,我们称之为“货币乘数”,而形成的社会信用总规模,通常被称为“广义货币供应量”。

换句话说,我们每个人口中所谓“钱”,其实绝大部分并不是央行印出来的,而是由商业银行的信用扩张而形成,其实就是“信贷”。如果整个社会经济繁荣,意味着“钱”的流转很快、很通畅,大家都能挣到钱,也愿意付给别人钱,也愿意从银行借钱,而商业银行也可以贷出去更多资金,使劲儿扩张自己的信用……

如果信贷的流通受阻,甚至因为某些原因,突然在某个关键链条上断掉了——这就是金融危机。

『02、雷曼兄弟倒闭,为何引爆金融危机?』

理解了现代金融体系的基本运作模式,就可以谈2008年的金融危机是如何爆发的了。

2008年破产的雷曼兄弟银行,虽然名字叫“银行”,但却并不是什么商业银行,而是投资银行,对应着我们中国的证券公司,这家公司买卖了名义价值高达上万亿美元的资产,其中相当大的一部分资产,是利用自己大投行身份给别人提供担保,比方说,担保房价不会下跌。

2007年之后美国房价暴跌,而给别人担保房价不会下跌的资产都出了大问题,意味着雷曼要赔偿几百亿美元给客户,雷曼根本没有这么多钱,于是就只有破产清算。

一家企业破产本来并没有什么问题,更何况雷曼兄弟说白了不过是一家证券公司而已,破产就破产呗,过去的几十年间,美国什么样的公司破产没见过,不都轻松过去了么,至于那些买了担保房价不会下跌的CDS的客户,得不到赔偿也只能自认倒霉……

问题在于,投资银行一直被誉为美国金融体系皇冠上的明珠,整个美国乃至全世界的美元债权和股权融资、资金流通,相当大的一部分都是依赖于美国五大投行(高盛、摩根斯坦利、美林、雷曼、贝尔斯登)而进行,雷曼兄弟正是这五大投行之一。

作为大名鼎鼎的五大投行之一,除去那些公司或个人客户之外,雷曼兄弟还与其他最大型的投资银行、商业银行、保险公司等金融机构,有着千丝万缕而又互相纠缠的庞大业务往来,若雷曼兄弟倒闭,就意味着这些机构得不到雷曼的款项支付。

因为涉及到上万亿美元的资产,如果这些机构得不到雷曼的款项支付,他们自然也无法支付自己的相关机构和客户。

就这样,雷曼兄弟破产之后,资金融通的链条传递下来,相当于整个美国的金融体系突然被冻僵了,资金流通突然消失了,所有人都等着别人支付给自己现金。

为了得到最宝贵的现金,美国股市发生了大规模的抛售浪潮,其他几乎所有资产也都在同时发生了大规模的抛售浪潮,包括黄金、白银、原油、铜……

这就是2008年金融危机。

当时整个社会信贷传递链条因为雷曼兄弟破产而突然僵冻,由此在金融市场形成急剧的信用收缩,所以我称2008年的金融危机叫做“信用冰冻”危机。

『03、美国如何从2008年危机泥潭中爬出的?』

有人可能会问,美联储和美国财政部为什么会允许雷曼兄弟破产这样的事件发生?

他们当然不希望这样的事件发生。

在雷曼兄弟破产之前的2008年3月份,已经有另外一家投行贝尔斯登,几乎面临和雷曼兄弟一样的问题,在即将破产之际,在美联储的安排下,被卖身给了当时的摩根大通银行。

就在雷曼兄弟破产的前一天,另外一家投行美林证券也是遭遇了雷曼兄弟一样的问题,同样是在美联储的安排下,在破产前夕被卖身给了美洲银行。

雷曼兄弟在破产前夕,因为知道面临的风险,美联储和美股财政部也召集了美国主要的金融机构一起开会,商讨雷曼兄弟收购事宜,甚至还找了接盘侠——英国的巴克莱银行。

但是,因为雷曼兄弟是自负盈亏的投资银行,并非可以直接与中央银行打交道的商业银行,所以美联储明确表示不会给雷曼兄弟以救助和收购的资金保障,巴克莱银行的收购被英国金融监管当局所否决。

在来不及的情况下,雷曼兄弟无法为相关的机构客户支付款项,就只有宣布倒闭,然后,其倒闭所引发的资金融通链条断掉,金融体系信贷冰冻,最终引发了2008年的全球金融危机。

说到底,其实就是因为雷曼兄弟破产,引发资金流通中断,然后金融机构之间的互不信任,引起信用急剧收缩,最终引发了全球危机。

既然问题是这样,那么解决问题,也要从这些方面入手。

金融危机爆发之后,美国财政部申请了7000亿美元财政资金,采用政府股权投资的方式,强行入股当时处于风暴眼中的大型金融企业,主要包括美国国际集团、花旗银行、富国银行、高盛、摩根斯坦利等,确保这些大型金融机构暂时的资金支付不会产生问题。

然后,美联储宣布将当时硕果仅存的两大投资银行——高盛和摩根斯坦利变身为商业银行,以便他们可以像摩根大通、花旗银行、美洲银行、富国银行等一样,随时可以向美联储申请资金援助,确保危机时刻的资金融通不出问题。

再接下来,因为按照中央银行的操作规定,所有人向央行申请资金,必须提供相应的抵押物,通常情况下,央行会按照市场价值来为这些抵押物估值(Market to Market),然后贷出相应的资金。但金融危机期间因为资产价格暴跌,各家银行根本没有足值抵押物提供给美联储,于是美国会计师协会特意出了一个声明,说以前按市场估值的方式并不合适,如果一家银行持有的资产并不出售的话,那么其资产可以按照购买时的价值来估值——这相当于帮助银行提供了得到资金的充足抵押物。

然后,美联储宣布实施大规模的QE,为市场提供足够资金,美联储所购买的资产中,既有国债这样的传统品种,更有当时被视为垃圾债券的关于MBS产品,用充足的基础货币补充因为信用冰冻而消失的社会信贷。

……

这一连串的组合拳打下来,美国的金融体系逐渐开始解冻,资金再度开始在金融体系内正常流通,其中的一部分也再度流向企业和股票市场。

就这样,金融危机最严重的阶段过去,随着整个经济体系内的信用紧缩得到缓解,美国经济开始逐渐复苏,其股票市场更是开启了到2019年底长达11年的长牛之路。

直到最近的这一轮股票暴跌的发生。

『04、为何“信用冰冻”的金融危机不会再现?』

2008年金融危机爆发之后,美联储和美国政府都意识到了大型金融机构的问题。

2009年3月10日,时任美国联邦储备委员会主席的伯南克说:“必须对美国金融监管体系进行改革,以加强对银行、共同基金和大型金融机构的监管。”

2009年6月,美国政府正式公布全面金融监管改革方案,从金融机构监管、金融市场监管、消费者权益保护、危机处理和国际合作等方面构筑安全防线,期望以此恢复对美国金融体系的信心,这拉开了美国上世纪30年代大萧条以来最大规模的金融体系改革序幕。

2010年6月-7月,这项名为《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革与消费者保护法案》的金融监管与改革法案先后在众议院、参议院通过,到当年7月21,时任美国总统奥巴马签署了该法案。

根据监管法案,将由财政部牵头成立金融稳定监管委员会,负责监测和处理威胁国家金融稳定的系统性风险,委员会有权认定哪些金融机构可能对市场产生系统性冲击,从而在资本金和流动性方面对这些机构提出更加严格的监管要求。

法案还极大强化了美联储权力,监管范围扩大到所有可能对金融稳定造成威胁的企业,除银行控股公司外,对冲基金、保险公司等也将被纳入美联储的监管范围(纯粹的投资银行2008年之后已经在美国消失),对金融企业设立要求更严格的资本金,大型、关联性强的企业将被设置更高标准,法案还赋予美联储监督金融市场支付、结算和清算系统的权力。

在新的监管法案之下,由一家金融机构破产而导致整个信贷市场陷入冰冻的可能性已经大大降低,换句话说,美国金融监管体系已经力图避免第二个雷曼兄弟出现。

即便是出现了类似于雷曼兄弟公司破产的案例,因为美联储已经有了2008年处理雷曼兄弟破产的经验和教训,美联储也绝对不可能允许其引发整个信贷市场冰冻的事情发生。

关于这次美国股票大跌,很多人动辄说市场是因为市场“缺钱”。

我特别要强调,在信用货币时代,“钱”其实想要多少就会有多少,只有某个人、某个机构存在着“缺钱”的问题,整个市场上从来不会“整体缺钱”。如果市场真的“缺钱”,由此造成市场利率高盛,因为央行可以无限印钞,确有必要,央行在键盘上敲下数字即可解决。

前面说过,不管买或者卖,拥有债权或者是债务,归根结底,这个“钱”都体现在我们在商业银行所开立的账户上,而商业银行又都在央行开立有自己的账户,可能会有某个银行“缺钱”,也可能会有某个银行有富余的钱,于是央行就把所有这些账户集中,每天都要进行一次结算,缺钱的银行从富余的银行借钱,满足自己的资金借贷平衡——既然借钱,当然要支付利息,这就是“隔夜利率(Overnight Rate)”。

整个商业银行体系而言,他们在央行所开立的账户上的“钱”的总量,几乎每一年都在增多,所以根本不存在市场缺钱问题。不管个人还是机构(除商业银行),你可能会缺钱,甚至会导致破产、清算,但根本不会影响市场整体的钱有多少。

更何况,如果哪家商业银行真的在每天的结算中缺钱了,只要提供合格的抵押品,央行完全可以按照基准利率给你提供新的资金,马上就不会缺钱了。

从这个意义上说,只要美联储愿意,美国当前最多只会有个别公司因为缺钱而出现问题,但整个市场是不可能因为“缺钱”而发生“信用冰冻”危机。

我说当代不会发生雷曼倒闭式的“信用冰冻”危机,但并不是说不会发生其他类型的金融危机,比方阿根廷式、委内瑞拉式或者津巴布韦式的经济危机。这些危机同2008年美国的金融危机完全不同,但我们都知道,那真真切切的也是危机。

马克吐温说过:

"

历史不会重复自己,但会压着同样的韵脚。

"

就在我写文章的时候,传来布伦特原油暴跌30%,WTI原油暴跌27%,再接下来是澳洲股市暴跌、韩国股市暴跌、日本股市暴跌……

这当然也是危机——

只是谁也想不到,这个危机并不是由某个人类的机构发起,而是由病毒发起。


 A plunging stock market. The widening shadow of recession. Fed interest rate cuts and government stimulus.

It's beginning to feel a lot like 2008 again. And not in a good way.

For many Americans, the stomach-churning market drops and growing recession talk of the past few weeks – triggered by the global spread of the coronavirus – are reviving memories of the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession.

Take a breath. While the toll the infection ultimately takes on the nation isn’t clear, the economic upheaval caused by the outbreak will likely not be nearly as damaging or long-lasting as the historic downturn of 2007-09.

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“A recession is not inevitable,” says Gus Faucher, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group. “If we do get a recession, it is likely to be brief and much less severe than the Great Recession.”

For one thing, the 2008 financial crisis and recession resulted from years of deeply rooted weak spots in the economy. That’s not the case now.

“What we’re seeing is caused by something external to the economy,” Faucher says.

“It’s closer to a natural disaster,” says Kathy Bostjancic, director of U.S. Macro Investors Services at Oxford Economics.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 27, 2020 in New York City.  With concerns growing about how the coronavirus might effect the economy, stocks fell for the fourth straight day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 1200 points on Thursday.

Partly as a result, the economy’s major players – consumers, businesses and lenders – are much better positioned to withstand the blows and bounce back.

Here’s a look at how the current crisis compares with the meltdown more than a decade ago.

The cause

The Great Recession. The bruising downturn was set off by an overheated housing market. Banks and other lenders approved mortgages – including many to buyers who weren’t qualified, driving up home prices to stratospheric levels. The banks bundled the mortgages into securities and sold them to other financial institutions. 

When home prices began spiraling down, millions of Americans stopped making mortgage payments and lost their homes while the banks that held the securities were pushed to the brink of bankruptcy.

Widespread layoffs in real estate, construction and banking hammered consumer spending and led to deeper job losses throughout the economy. Bank lending was virtually frozen, grinding the gears of the economy to a near halt. The problems had been simmering in the housing market and banking system for years.

Current crisis. The coronavirus, which originated in China late last year, has sparked today’s economic hazard. There are now more than 100,000 cases worldwide, most of them in China, and the death toll has topped 4,000. In the U.S., more than 800 people have been infected and 28 have died.

Because far fewer people are affected than in 2007-2009, the economic toll has been limited so far. The travel and tourism industry has suffered the most, with businesses canceling conferences and trade shows and consumers scrapping vacation plans. Disruptions to deliveries of manufacturing parts and retail goods from China could temporarily shut down American factories and leave store shelves empty.  

As Americans avoid more public places, the virus is likely to hurt sales at restaurants, malls and other venues. There are some signs retailers are already taking a hit. In the last week of February, foot traffic to Walmart stores fell 16.5% compared with the previous week, according to consumer data firm Cuebiq. In the same week, however, traffic to Costco stores rose 7.7%.

Household debt

Great Recession. Since banks freely doled out credit for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, household debt climbed to a record 134% of gross domestic product, according to Oxford Economics and the Federal Reserve. Americans had been saving just 3.6% of their income at the end of 2007. As Americans worked down that debt, spending fell sharply.

Current crisis. Household debt is at a historically low 96% of GDP.  Households are saving about 8% of their income. All of that means they can handle a brief slump and continue spending at a reduced level.

“Consumers are in good shape,” Faucher says.

Job losses

Great Recession. Nearly 9 million Americans lost their jobs in the downturn. Unemployment more than doubled to 10%.

Current crisis. Losses are likely to total in the thousands, with travel and tourism and manufacturing enduring much of them, Bostjancic says. The 3.5% unemployment rate, a 50-year low, could rise to 3.8% to 4.1%, says Diane Swonk, chief economist of Grant Thornton.

How long it lasts

Great Recession. With millions out of work and household and business spending decimated, the downturn lasted 18 months.

Current crisis. Assuming the number of cases peak in the next few months and abates by summer, Swonk says any downturn is likely to last six months or so.

The economy

Great Recession. The economy contracted in five of six quarters during the slump, falling as much as 8.4% in late 2008.

Current crisis. Most economists expect the virus to shave growth by one or two percentage points over the next couple of quarters.

The stock market

Great Recession: The stock market plummeted 57% during the crisis.

Current crisis. The stock market hasn’t seen the same sizable drop that the broader market suffered in the depths of the financial crisis. The Standard & Poor's 500 slid 14.9% from its Feb. 19 record through Tuesday, teetering on the brink of a bear market, or a drop of 20% from a peak.

Corporate health

Great Recession. Corporations had $5.8 trillion in rated debt as of March 31, 2009, according to S&P Global Ratings. Less than two-thirds, or about 65%, was investment grade, which ratings agencies determined was highly likely to be repaid.

A wide variety of companies, including financial institutions, automakers and retailers, collapsed as their revenues plunged.

In the automotive sector, for example, manufacturers cut about 278,400 jobs, or about 29% of their collective workforce from January 2008 to January 2010, automakers and suppliers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Automotive companies are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns because people can often hold off on buying new vehicles until conditions improve. U.S. auto sales plunged during the Great Recession.

Current crisis. Corporations had $9.3 trillion in rated debt in 2019, according to S&P Global Ratings.

But a higher percentage of corporate debt today is considered to be investment grade at 72%. 

That said, conditions for repayment are clearly deteriorating. “The stress has been very, very quickly accelerating,” said Sudeep Kesh, head of credit markets research for S&P Global Ratings, adding that “there’s a flight to quality” as investors pile into U.S. Treasurys and highly-rated corporate bonds.

The major sector most likely to fail to make payments on time, as of 2019, was the automotive industry, where about 4 in 5 companies have debt rated as speculative.

Another sector facing significant risk is the retail industry, where department stores, mall-based retailers and many other shops have already been struggling.

Though the oil-and-gas sector is expected to be hit hard by the sharp decline in oil prices, the industry is heading into this crisis in decent shape. Only 31% of oil-and-gas companies had debt rated as junk in 2019.

Banking regulations

Great Recession. Flaws in oversight and weak regulations at Wall Street's largest investment banks were other contributing factors to the financial crisis. Some experts point to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which once kept commercial and investment banking separate. 

The financial regulation, which had helped mitigate risks posed by big banks, was passed in 1933 in the midst of the Great Depression and was later repealed in 1999. The move effectively allowed banks to become even larger, or "too big to fail."

Regulators including the Federal Reserve failed to crack down on questionable mortgage practices that didn't take into account a borrower's ability to repay a loan. The central bank had a looser set of rules for mortgage lenders and fewer protections for home buyers that some experts argue contributed to abusive lending.

Current crisis. The global financial crisis ushered in sweeping changes to how the U.S. government regulates the banking industry. The new era, which included the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, required banks to have more cash in reserves to provide a cushion in case the financial system faced economic shocks.

In the U.S., banks with more than $100 billion in assets are required to take the Federal Reserve’s “stress tests,” a move that ensures financial firms have the capital necessary to continue operating during times of economic duress.

The magnitude of the challenges the economy faces aren’t as dire as the obstacles during the Great Recession, experts say.

“It’s a difference in severity,” says Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management. “Capital requirements have put banks in a much more comfortable position to be able withstand a major shock.”

To be sure, banks’ profitability could be threatened in the near term if they are forced to tighten lending standards. A historic drop in bond yields recently could pressure banks further because it tends to hurt their profitability.

Some financial institutions, typically regional banks, could face some obstacles over the coming months if they are lending money to energy companies. Those stocks have been pummeled recently following a precipitous drop in crude prices. But larger banks likely won’t face major risks since they are typically more diversified and aren’t concentrated in one sector, Ma says.

“This isn’t a financial crisis,” says Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at broker-dealer Meridian Equity Partners. “This is a global epidemic. This isn’t a flaw in the system that we’re uncovering like the subprime mortgage debacle.”

The Fed

Great Recession: The Federal Reserve’s key interest rate was at 5.25% in 2007 as worries about the housing meltdown grew. That gave the central bank plenty of room to slash the rate to near zero by late 2008. The Fed also launched unprecedented bond purchases to lower long-term rates, such as for mortgages.

Current crisis: The Fed’s benchmark rate is at a range of just 1% to 1.25%, giving officials little room to cut. And 10-year Treasury rates are already below 1%, raising questions about the effectiveness of a renewed bond-buying campaign.

The stimulus

Great Recession: The downturn inflicted pain throughout the economy, and so Congress passed a sweeping stimulus. The $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act doled out tax savings and credits to individuals and companies; provided funding for healthcare centers and schools; assisted low-income workers; and approved massive upgrades to transportation, energy and communications networks. 

Current crisis: The damage this time is more contained and lawmakers are discussing more targeted measures, such as helping the beleaguered travel industry and offsetting income losses for hourly workers by expanding paid sick leave and unemployment insurance.

Housing

Great Recession: During the housing bubble that began in the 1990s, home prices more than doubled by 2006 before crashing, according to the National Association of Realtors. The housing market remained in the doldrums through 2012.

Current crisis: Although prices have risen steadily in recent years, they’re just 22% above their peak. Homes aren’t overpriced, Faucher says. That means with mortgage rates low, housing can help offset troubles in the rest of the economy.

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